One Nation's rise in popularity, reaching a 22% primary vote in the latest Guardian Essential poll, is not just a Coalition issue. Labor is also on alert, as a significant portion of its voters are open to voting for One Nation. The party's controversial comments about Australian Muslims and ties to Gina Rinehart have sparked concern among Labor supporters.
While some Labor MPs downplay the threat, acknowledging that One Nation lacks real policies and a broad appeal, others are sharpening their attack lines. They highlight One Nation's opposition to Labor's cost of living and industrial relations policies, and its ties to Gina Rinehart. However, the government recognizes the need to focus on bread-and-butter issues like tax, housing, and social matters to prevent voters from drifting to the right-wing populist party.
The Essential poll reveals that 58% of respondents are open to voting for One Nation, with 12% of current Labor voters expressing a strong intention to switch. This trend is concerning, especially in the mining-rich Hunter region of NSW, where One Nation's candidate came close to winning in the 2025 election.
Labor's strategy involves emphasizing its policies on health, economic matters, and 'same job, same pay' legislation, which targets labor hire loopholes and increases in penalty rates. They aim to engage with constituents in their communities, addressing their concerns and highlighting their achievements.
However, Labor must be cautious not to fall into the trap of conservative culture wars. They should focus on rebuilding trust by delivering on promises and acting as a stable force. Some Labor sources suggest that a focus on jobs, cost of living, and infrastructure will help stem the tide of voters drifting to One Nation.
Despite the challenges, Labor is committed to its day-to-day policy focus and service delivery. The May budget could be an opportunity to address concerns about inequality and demonstrate a commitment to a fairer economy. This approach is crucial to differentiating themselves from One Nation and appealing to progressive voters who want to see positive change.
